How Does Yield Prophet Work?
The crop simulations are created by combining the essential components of growing a crop including:
• a soil test sampled prior to planting
• a soil characterisation selected from the Yield Prophet library of ~1,000 soils selected as representative of the production area
• historical and current climate data taken from the nearest Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) weather station or current climate data from your privately owned weather station (optional)
• paddock specific rainfall data recorded by the user (optional) or our privately owned weather station (optional)
• individual crop details
• fertiliser and irrigation applications during the growing season.
In late summer and autumn, subscribers sample the soil in their Yield Prophet paddocks down to the maximum rooting depth of their crop at different intervals (e.g. 0-10, 10-40, 40-70, 70-100cm).
These samples are analysed for water content, organic carbon, nitrate and chloride concentration, electrical conductivity and pH. This information is entered into the Yield Prophet web interface and is then used by the grower/consultant and the Yield Prophet team to select a suitable soil characterisation. Information on the requirements and costs of initial soil data are outlined in Yield Prophet® Soil Sampling Information.
An appropriately measured soil characterisation is essential for Yield Prophet to accurately simulate crop growth and yield. The Plant Available Water Capacity (PAWC) and bulk density of a specific soil type are used to determine how much of the measured water and nitrogen is available to the crop for growth during the season. PAWC is determined by a soil’s ‘Drained Upper Limit’ (DUL, or field capacity) and its ‘Crop Lower Limit’ (CLL, similar to permanent wilting point).
Yield Prophet has a catalogue of soil characterisations for many of the major cropping soil types found throughout Australia. More information about the catalogue of soils can be found on the APSOIL website. Yield Prophet users must select a soil characterisation from the catalogue that is most representative of the area soil sampled. In some circumstances there are soil types for which there is no available characterisation data. In these circumstances, it is recommended that potential subscribers to Yield Prophet consider characterising their soil if no appropriate data exists.
If you are interested in having your soils characterised or would like more information please contact Tim McClelland. Alternatively, if you would like to understand more about the soil characterisation process, please visit the APSOIL website for a methodology.
Yield Prophet accesses climate information sourced directly over the web from the SILO Patched Point Dataset (PPD). This is a catalogue of climate information for 4600 weather stations across Australia. If you wish to know more about the SILO PPD please visit the SILO website. Currently users select a weather station from the database that is representative of the location of their paddock. The weather station has two distinct purposes in the simulations process:
- 1. It provides climate data from the current season which is used to simulate crop growth and the soil water and nitrogen processes in the paddock from the time of soil sampling to the time of the report. During the season, Yield Prophet subscribers may enter rainfall for each paddock into the web interface. Alternatively, they can opt to utilise the seasonal rainfall data recorded at their nominated BOM station.
- 2. It provides historic data which is used to simulates crop growth and resource availability from the day on which the report was generated to the end of the season. This process is repeated once for each year of climate record (~120 years) providing 120 separate yield outcomes.
Now users may opt to utilise private live weather stations located at the paddock being simulated. However, it should be noted that this improvement will only be realised in the simulation of crops in the current season. Yield Prophet will still need to utilise the historic records from the PPD as the basis for simulations from the day on which the report was generated to the end of the season.
Yield Prophet requires subscribers to enter individual crop details into the website for inclusion in the simulations. Specific details required are the type and amount of starting stubble, sowing date, crop type, cultivar and sowing density.
During the season, subscribers update paddock management details (cultivations and nitrogen fertiliser and irrigation applications) as they occur.
Crop Growth Simulation
When a report is requested, the user paddock-specific information is emailed from the Yield Prophet database to a computer cluster where the simulation is processed. Using climate data for the current season, Yield Prophet simulates the soil water and nitrogen processes in the paddock from the soil sampling date, together with the crop growth from the user-nominated sowing date, to the present. Yield Prophet calculates the amount of water and nitrogen available to the crop and the water and nitrogen demands of the crop. This is used to determine whether the crop is suffering stress from lack of either of these resources and to assess any resultant reduction in growth and yield potential.
Using historic climate data, Yield Prophet then simulates crop growth and resource availability from the day on which the report was generated to the end of the season.
This process is repeated once for each year of climate record (~120 years) providing 120 separate yield outcomes (Figure 1). These yields are then plotted as a probability curve (Figure 2), providing growers with an estimate of the probabilities of obtaining a range of yields. This output is then adapted to the requested report type and emailed to the website or the subscriber, where it can be viewed by the subscriber. Report generation takes from five to fifteen minutes.
Figure 2 is the main output of Yield Prophet which is a core component of all the reports generated in Yield Prophet. Figure 2 is showing that this crop has:
| || |
The probable impact of different sowing dates, varieties and irrigation and nitrogen applications can be determined by simulating different ‘scenarios’. Yield Prophet generates a probability curve for each scenario, and subscribers use this to determine the probability of achieving a yield response from the addition of water or nitrogen (Figure 3 and Figure 4) or from different sowing dates and varieties (Figure 5). Yield Prophet can also calculate a nitrogen gross margin based on the predicted grain quality and price (Figure 6).
Figure 3: Yield probability curves for three different nitrogen top-dressing scenarios generated for a dryland wheat crop. Scenario 1 (pink line) represents the yield probability adding no further nitrogen, Scenario 2 (blue line) represents the yield probability with 20 kg/ha of nitrogen top-dressed and Scenario 3 represents the yield probability with 40 kg/ha of nitrogen top-dressed. There is an 80% chance of achieving a yield response with topdressing,
|Figure 4: Yield probability curves for three different nitrogen and irrigation scenarios generated for an irrigated wheat crop. Scenario 1 (pink line) represents the yield probability adding no further water or nitrogen, Scenario 2 (blue line) represents the yield probability with an additional 50 kg/ha of nitrogen top-dressed, Scenario 3 represents the yield probability with 50 kg/ha of nitrogen top-dressed and two additional 25 mm irrigations.|
|||Figure 5: Yield probability curves for three different varieties and sowing date scenarios (shown above the graph) generated for a wheat crop at Birchip.|
| Figure 6: Nitrogen profit curves for the same nitrogen application scenarios shown in Figure 3. Each line is calculated as |
the return from grain (determined by yield and protein minus cost of fertiliser and spreading) for Scenario 1 (solid pink line 0kg/ha of nitrogen) Scenario 2 (solid blue line, 20 kg/ha of nitrogen) and 3 (solid red line, 40 kg/ha of nitrogen). This shows the difference in return between applying nitrogen at specified amounts, and not applying nitrogen. In this case, the cost of fertiliser is assumed to be $2.00 per kg of nitrogen, cost of spreading $10 per ha and the wheat price (AH) $350/t, with a $2.50 per 0.5% protein bonus.
Yield Prophet Services
Yield Prophet is a sophisticated tool with a significant number of applications and services that can support your farm business in the production and marketing of grain.
Yield Prophet should be incorporated into every farm as it provides in-crop decision support and generates information that contributes to producers matching crop inputs with production potential. By registering a number of paddocks with different soil types, climatic conditions and crop types across a farm, a representative sample of crop conditions should be generated.
Yield Prophet Workshops and Help Line
Individuals and businesses subscribing to Yield Prophet are entitled to the necessary assistance to ensure easy operation of the web interface and interpretation of Yield Prophet reports.
A Help-line is available to assist subscribers with any problems or queries that arise in the day-to-day operation or interpretation of Yield Prophet.
Subscribers are also entitled to request a workshop by means of which a member of the Yield Prophet team will provide training in the operation of the web interface and an introductory session on the interpretation of Yield Prophet reports and outputs.
Yield Prophet Reports
A number of report types are available to users of Yield Prophet to assist with management decisions in and out of the growing season. In season reports are the:
- Crop Report: The Crop Report is the principal report used by Yield Prophet subscribers. It contains twenty separate outputs relating to the individual crop and produces a snap shot in time with (this report is used throughout the growing season as an in-crop support tool for decisions related to nitrogen management, irrigation management, hay cutting, frost risk assessment, marketing, insurance, etc):
- a potential yield range for grain and hay production
- the quantity of available water and nitrogen water resources
- the incidence of nitrogen and water stress
- estimated and forecast phenological progress of the crop
- the probability and incidence of water logging, frost and heat shock
- climate forecasts and the effect on yield
- Nitrogen Comparison Report: The Nitrogen Comparison Report allows subscribers to compare the effects on yield of changes in the quantity or timing of applied nitrogen in different scenarios.
- Nitrogen Profit Report: The Nitrogen Profit Report, using basic gross margin inputs, allows subscribers to compare the profitability of the management decisions applied in the Nitrogen Comparison Report.
- Irrigation Comparison Report: The Irrigation Comparison Report allows subscribers to compare the effects on yield of changes in the quantity
- Irrigation Profit Report: The Irrigation Profit Report, using basic gross margin inputs, allows subscribers to compare the profitability of the management decisions applied in the Irrigation Comparison Report.
Out of season reports are:
- Sowing by variety report: The Sowing by Variety Report allows subscribers to simulate different scenarios and compare yield probability distributions of crop cultivars or sowing dates. By comparing the effects on yield, growers can assess the impacts on likely crop yield of different sowing dates and cultivars prior to the growing season. Yield Prophet produces a probability curve for each scenario allowing subscribers to compare the yield effects. This report is generally used by subscribers prior to the growing season as a basis for planting decisions. It assesses the impacts of different sowing dates and cultivars on likely crop yield.
- Sowing opportunity report: The Sowing Opportunity Report allows subscribers to generate reports that show the effect of sowing date on potential yield, as well as frost and heat shock risk relative to their specific paddock, climatic conditions and chosen variety. The report shows the 100 year average nitrogen unlimited yields for crops planted from the 1st of April to the 30th of June and the associated frost and heat shock probabilities.
- Fallow monitoring report: The Fallow Monitoring Report allows subscribers to determine the soil moisture and nitrogen levels at the time of the report. This report is generally used after crops have been harvested and feeds into the Stubble Management Report.
- Stubble management report: The Stubble Management Report allows subscribers to compare the effect of different tillage and grazing decisions on soil nitrogen and moisture content. This report is generally used out of the growing season, between harvest and sowing, as a basis for tillage and grazing decisions.
- Climate change report: The Climate Change Report allows subscribers to observe the potential effects of climate change on crop yields in the year 2030. Yield Prophet produces a yield probability curve for historic climatic conditions and two climate change scenarios developed by the CSIRO for comparison.
- Climate adaptation report: The Climate Adaptation report allows subscribers to compare their crop potential using their current practice versus an adapted practice under two different climate change scenarios: ‘best case’, and ‘worst case’. Subscribers are able to review the yield potential with their current practice under these two scenarios and then “experiment” with alternative crop cultivars, plant densities, sowing window, nitrogen and irrigation applications, and stubble and tillage management to adjust to the potential changes in climate. This report allows users to form and test strategies to respond to climate change before the effects are fully realised.
For further information...
Yield Prophet Coordinator
p: 03 54 922 787
f: 03 54 922 753
m: 0400 090 659