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What is Yield Prophet?

Yield Prophet^® is an on-line crop production model designed to provide grain growers with real-time information about the crop, providing integrated production risk and monitoring decision support relevant to farm management. Operated as a web interface for the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM (new window)), Yield Prophet generates crop simulations and reports to assist in decision making.

The simulations provide a framework for growers and advisors to forecast yield, manage climate and soil water risk, target specific grain quality, make informed decisions about nitrogen and irrigation applications, match inputs with the yield potential of their crop, assess the effect of changed sowing dates or varieties and assess the possible affects of climate change. By matching crop inputs with potential yield in a given season, Yield Prophet subscribers may avoid over and under inves

Yield Prophet^® is an on-line crop production model designed to provide grain growers with real-time information about the crop, providing integrated production risk and monitoring decision support relevant to farm management. Operated as a web interface for the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM (new window)), Yield Prophet generates crop simulations and reports to assist in decision making.

The simulations provide a framework for growers and advisors to forecast yield, manage climate and soil water risk, target specific grain quality, make informed decisions about nitrogen and irrigation applications, match inputs with the yield potential of their crop, assess the effect of changed sowing dates or varieties and assess the possible affects of climate change. By matching crop inputs with potential yield in a given season, Yield Prophet subscribers may avoid over and under investing in their crop.

Subscriptions for 2010 are now open. Details on how to subscribe to Yield Prophet in 2010.

Yield Prophet services

Yield Prophet is a sophisticated tool with a significant number of applications and services that can support your farm business in the production and marketing of grain.

Paddock subscriptions

Yield Prophet should be incorporated into every farm as it provides in-crop decisions support and generates information that contributes to producers matching crop inputs with production potential.

By registering a number of paddocks across the farm with different soil types, climatic conditions and crop types, a representative sample of crop conditions should be generated.

Yield Prophet workshops and help line

Individuals and businesses who subscribe to Yield Prophet are entitled to the necessary assistance to ensure easy operation of the web interface and interpretation of Yield Prophet reports.

A help line is available to assist subscribers with any problems or queries that arise in the day-to-day operation or interpretation of Yield Prophet.

Subscribers are also entitled to request a workshop in which a member of the Yield Prophet team will provide training in the operation of the web interface and an introductory session on the interpretation of Yield Prophet reports and outputs.

Yield Prophet periodical

Subscribers to Yield Prophet also receive a periodical newsletter which highlights new developments in Yield Prophet, provides insights into the interpretation of Yield Prophet reports and offers reminders at key times throughout the year. To see past periodicals please click on the links below:

Yield Prophet reports

A number of report types are available to users of Yield Prophet to assist with management decisions in and out of the growing season. In season, reports are the:

Crop Report: Example (new window) The Crop Report is the principal report used by Yield Prophet subscribers. It contains twenty separate outputs relating to the individual crop and produces a snapshot in time with:

• a potential yield range for grain and hay production;
• the quantity of available water and nitrogen water resources;
• the incidence of nitrogen and water stress;
• estimated and forecast phenological progress of the crop;
• the probability and incidence of water logging, frost and heat shock; and
• climate forecasts and the effect on yield.

This report is used throughout the growing season as an in-crop decision support tool for decisions related to nitrogen management, irrigation management, hay cutting, frost risk assessment, marketing, insurance etc.

Nitrogen Comparison Report: Example (new window) The Nitrogen Comparison Report allows subscribers to compare the effects on yield of changes in the quantity or timing of applied nitrogen in different scenarios.

Nitrogen Profit Report: Example (new window) The Nitrogen Profit Report, using basic gross margin inputs, allows subscribers to compare the profitability of the management decisions applied in the Nitrogen Comparison Report.

Irrigation Comparison Report: The Irrigation Comparison Report allows subscribers to compare the effects on yield of changes in the quantity or timing of water and nitrogen applied by simulating different scenarios.

Irrigation Profit Report: The Irrigation Profit Report, using basic gross margin inputs, allows subscribers to compare the profitability of the management decisions applied in the Irrigation Comparison Report.

Out of season reports are:

Sowing by Variety Report: Example (new window) The Sowing by Variety Report allows subscribers to simulate different scenarios and compare yield probability distributions of crop cultivars or sowing dates. By comparing the effects on yield, growers can assess the impacts on likely crop yield of different sowing dates and cultivars prior to the growing season.

Yield Prophet produces a probability curve for each scenario allowing subscribers to compare the yield effects. This report is generally used by subscribers prior to the growing season as a basis for planting decisions by assessing the impacts of different sowing dates and cultivars on likely crop yield.

Sowing Opportunity Report: Example (new window) The Sowing Opportunity Report allowing subscribers to generate reports that show the effect of sowing date on potential yield, and frost and heat shock risk which is relative to their specific paddock, climatic conditions and chosen variety. The report shows the 100 year average nitrogen unlimited yields for crops planted from the 1st of April to the 30th of June and associated frost and heat shock probabilities.

Fallow Monitoring Report: Example (new window) The Fallow Monitoring Report allows subscribers to determine the soil moisture and nitrogen levels at the time of the report. This report is generally used after crops have been harvested and feeds into the Stubble Management Report.

Stubble Management Report: Example (new window) The Stubble Management Report allows subscribers to compare the effect of different tillage and grazing decisions on soil nitrogen and moisture content. This report is usually used out of the growing season, between harvest and sowing, as a basis for tillage and grazing decisions.

Climate Change Report: Example (new window) The Climate Change Report allows subscribers to observe the potential effects of climate change on crop yields in the year 2030. Yield Prophet produces a yield probability curve for historic climatic conditions and two climate change scenarios developed by the CSIRO for comparison.

Climate Adaptation Report: Example (new window) The Climate Adaptation report allows subscribers to compare their crop potential using their current practice versus an adapted practice under two different climate change scenarios, ‘best case’, and ‘worst case’. Subscribers are able to review the yield potential with their current practice under these two scenarios and then “experiment” with alternative crop cultivars, plant densities, sowing window, nitrogen and irrigation applications, and stubble and tillage management to adjust to the potential changes in climate. This report allows users to form and test strategies to respond to climate change before the effects are fully realised.

Yield Prophet subscription and pricing

For Yield Prophet subscription types and prices and to register for Yield Prophet in 2010, click here. Prices do not include sampling and analysis for initial soil conditions. Please register before 1 April to ensure access prior to sowing.

Read about soil testing information - requirements and costs of initial soil data.

See it for yourself

Visit the Yield Prophet website (new window) to view previously generated reports for the BCG trial site and access help files with more information about operating Yield Prophet and how to interpret reports. Simply respond to Username and Password by typing in Visitor.

For further information...

Please contact:

Tim McClelland
Yield Prophet Coordinator
Phone: (03) 9882 2670
Fax: (03) 9882 0996
Mobile: (0400) 090 659
Email: yieldprophet@bcg.org.au