Ask a farmer what would help them most, and chances are, accurate weather forecasts will be close to the top of the list. There’s no doubt that there have been some incredible advances in technology in recent years, and yet, from time to time, the Bureau’s forecasts don’t end up exactly as predicted. But when you start to look at what needs to be considered, it’s amazing how well they do most of the time.
Most people know that the weather in Victoria is significantly influenced by the Southern Ocean. If its’s hot in Perth today, then chances are it will be hot here three days later. But as air masses move across Australia, they are exposed to a huge number of new influences, such as ocean temperatures, soil moisture levels, mountain ranges, and interactions with other weather systems. The list of factors to consider is endless. If this wasn’t confusing enough, each layer up in the atmosphere has its own variables, which in turn affect all the other layers. It’s like a 3D game of chess.
Predicting exactly what will emerge from such chaos may seem impossible. If one event were to happen one second earlier than predicted, then the whole chain could be altered. Put simply, millions of pieces of data are needed for every model forecast the Bureau runs, and every single one of those pieces of data is capable of changing the forecast.
Accurate observations are vital for an accurate forecast. With the further development of satellite technology, detection of things such as temperature, humidity and cloud masses in areas thousands of kilometres from the nearest weather station are helping hone the art of weather forecasting. Things are constantly improving. However, in the words of Andrew Watkins, head of long-range forecasts at the Bureau: ‘the only way we will ever get perfect forecasts is if we know the exact location and force of every single particle of the universe.’
Who knows? Perhaps one day we will.
