Yield Prophet predicts a 6t wheat crop

A six tonne wheat crop in the Southern Mallee is a rare event.   

 

The lucky farmer, a seasoned operator, not surprisingly, was sceptical about the validity of his Yield Prophet report of August 27. An 80% chance of achieving at least six tonnes per hectare at harvest? The grower’s scepticism was accentuated by the fact that the growing season was tracking Decile 1 (i.e. in the lowest 10%).  

 

The grower was so dubious that he emailed the Yield Prophet team of CSIRO scientists and BCG staff, and offered to buy each of them dinner if the Yield Prophet prediction proved to be on the money.  

 

The YP team took up the challenge and the controversy has kept the issue alive throughout the 2011 growing season.  Is it possible to grow a 6t crop on what has turned out to be a Decile 2 growing season?

 

The paddock soil sample, taken on 31 March, indicated the presence of 189mm of stored soil moisture and 168kg nitrogen/ha.  Over the summer fallow period between October and March, the paddock received over 400mm of rainfall, the highest amount of rainfall for that period since the beginning of records (110 years).  The high rainfall, combined with a strong paddock legume history, it was clear that moisture and nitrogen test results were likely to be close to the mark. The grower had implemented sound weed control and had applied 20kg nitrogen/ha at sowing to ensure the crop got a good start.  

 

Under such favourable conditions, the Yield Prophet team was confident that the potential of the paddock was significant. Yield Prophet provided the impetus for the grower to adopt a comprehensive fungicide strategy to protect the potential of his crop.  All that stood between a high crop yield was a severe frost or heat shock event or a wet harvest. 

 

The crop is approaching full maturity and will be harvested in the next two weeks. Tension is building. What will be the outcome?

 

The very least that can be said is that, even if the crop does not achieve the high yields forecast by Yield Prophet, this paddock has highlighted the value of using a decision support tool. At most – certainly for the YP team – consuming a free dinner will be a source of additional satisfaction to the professional one already experienced.

 

The farmer wins either way.

 

Under ‘normal’ circumstances Yield Prophet acts as a validation for our intuition. In this case, Yield Prophet has provided the grower with a necessary correction of his intuition which has encouraged him to invest in his crop and protect its potential.