You’ve probably seen the term “Super El Nino” doing the rounds lately. It’s catchy, it grabs attention, but it’s not actually a term that the Bureau of Meteorology uses and it doesn’t reflect how El Nino events are formally defined or classified.
At the moment the climate system is in a neutral ENSO phase, meaning we are in neither El Nino nor La Nina. For north west Victoria, that tells us that we are not currently being driven by a dominant climate signal and instead conditions are being shaped by a mix of shorter term influences and other climate drivers. There is some chance of El Nino developing later in the year, but the timing, strength and critically, the local impact, are all uncertain.
El Nino is part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is a natural climate cycle driven by ocean temperatures and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific. When it does develop it is often associated with drier conditions across south-eastern Australia, along with warmer daytime temperatures and increased frost risk in some seasons. However, El Nino does not guarantee a dry year and the relationship between the climate signal and what plays out on farm is often farm from direct.
That’s where the idea of a “Super El Nino” can be misleading. It suggests that a stronger event will automatically translate to a stronger impact; however, the relationship isn’t that simple. We’ve seen strong El Nino events with relatively modest outcomes locally and weaker ones that have coincided with challenging seasons. ENSO is just one of several climate drivers influencing Victoria’s rainfall and other drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode and even short term weather patterns often matter just as much.
Given that context, the focus shifts away from labels and back to the current state of the system, ENSO remains neutral and while a transition is possible, there is not yet a clear or consistent signal on how that will unfold locally. In the absence of a dominant driver, seasonal conditions will continue to be shaped by a combination of influences, with short term rainfall patterns and starting soil moisture likely to have the greatest bearing on outcomes in the near term.
If El Nino does emerge its impact will depend on how it interacts with the other drivers through the season rather than its perceived strength. For north west Victoria, where variability is the norm, the more reliable guide remains what is happening on the ground, not the label attached to the system.
This article was supported by the Australian Government’s Future Drought Fund.
The Victoria Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub is a state-wide collaboration of 10 organisations.
Led by the University of Melbourne and with headquarters at UM’s Dookie Campus, the Vic Hub is a Partnership between five farming organisations (Birchip Cropping Group, Food & Fibre Gippsland, Mallee Regional Innovation Centre, Riverine Plains and Southern Farming Systems), four universities (UM, Deakin, Federation and La Trobe), and the State Government (through Agriculture Victoria).
One of eight hubs established nationally under the Australian Government’s Future Drought Fund (FDF), the Vic Hub works to enhance the drought preparedness and resilience of Victoria’s agricultural industries, the environment and regional communities, encompassing broader agricultural innovation. Engaging with a range of industry and community stakeholders, the Vic Hub links research with community needs for sustainable outcomes.
