BCG’s ‘Critical Breaking Point? Understanding the impact of drought on farming families in the Wimmera Mallee’ aims to gain a better understanding of the pressures upon, and experiences of, farming families in a time of drought. Based on in-depth interviews with farming families in the Wimmera Southern Mallee region of north-western Victoria, it uses an unprecedented longitudinal approach to track the experiences of farming families during a time of drought and – it was expected and hoped – a period of drought recovery.
Understanding the perspectives, concerns and decision-making of farmers and their families at a time when options are restricted by financial circumstances and when confidence has been weakened by a series of dry seasons is vital. The situation and decisions facing many farming families are complex and fraught. Yet, little is known about what exact pressures farming families perceive or how they are responding. Little is known about what their goals for the future are or what obstacles they see in the way. Thus, little is known about how they could best be assisted.
This study is based on two phases of research. Part One interviewed sixty randomly selected farming families during severe drought in February 2007. Part Two involved two follow-up interviews at six monthly intervals (September 2007 and February 2008) with a subset of twenty of the sixty farming families (representing some of the younger and older families of the original sample) interviewed in Part One. The interviews were conducted using a unique local interviewer methodology.
Eleven main trends emerged from the research:
1. Virtually all farming families are eating into their physical, financial and personal/emotional reserves to cope with the drought and will continue to need to do so if drought continues;
2. For most farming families, the effects of drought will remain with them for years after the drought ends;
3. The majority of farming families are persevering and have not been pushed to leave farming, although most have had to alter their personal and professional plans and most have engaged the question of whether to leave and will continue to re-engage it over coming years;
4. There are strong differences between the circumstances and outlooks of farming families and these differences appear to be widening in some ways;
5. Regardless of how severely a farming family’s financial situation has been affected by the drought, they have been and will continue to be affected by drought indirectly as it exacerbates other issues, affects those around them, and throws a veil of uncertainty over the future;
6. Farming families’ awareness of and sensitivity to the risks involved in farming has escalated and many are adopting what could be a permanently more conservative approach to production, marketing and income protection;
7. The default position for a minority of farmers is optimism and the proportion of people who share this outlook swells at the start of each year when the potential of the new season is still unknown;
8. Some people’s outlook on farming, climate and the world in general has been fundamentally darkened by their experience over the last few years and they now suffer from high levels of anxiety irrespective of weather conditions;
9. People remain committed to their sector and communities, but struggle with multiple demands upon them and are being forced to focus on their own needs to cope with the effects of the drought;
10. The vast majority of small rural communities are facing serious issues of declining active populations and services and this is negatively affecting the wellbeing and resolve of the farming families that help make up those communities; and
11. Financial assistance is now welcomed and accepted by most but will continue to aggravate negative responses among some for the way that it conflicts with their belief in self-help.
Overall, this research highlights how drought is exacerbating the already complex issues facing farming families today. By adding another layer of unpredictability and eroding their physical, financial and social/personal reserves, drought is heightening the uncertainty and risk many farming families are dealing with. This research highlights the commonalities and the diversity between farming families as they cope with this situation and different life stages, and documents both the anxiety and resilience different individuals, families and communities are exhibiting. It brings to the fore the importance of the wider rural community for farming families and the impact of challenges in this arena on farming families’ decision-making. It details the dangerous positive feedback cycles that can emerge between issues as well as the rapid rises in optimism that can result from small improvements in conditions. In sum, this unique, extended snapshot of a community under stress provides important insights for others experiencing drought and attendant pressures.
